|
|
GOLD
4,044
▲+0.9%
|
BITCOIN
60,000
▼−1.0%
|
NASDAQ
25,359
▼−0.5%
|
S&P 500
7,357
▼−0.01%
|
VIX
18.89
▲+1.4%
|
As of 5:00 AM EST, Friday June 26, 2026
|
|
|
|
G
ood morning, and welcome to Friday. Some mornings the market hands you a clean story; this is not one of them. The big inflation number landed hot yesterday, the hottest in three years, and the market just shrugged, because it was exactly what everyone expected and oil had already rolled over. Fine. But two things are pulling at me as we head into the weekend. First, Micron's blockbuster has split the market clean in half: the chipmakers are euphoric while Apple and Microsoft slide, because the same memory shortage that mints money for one is a cost headache for the other. And second, yesterday a ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil risk everyone had written off is suddenly back, with a quiet weekend ahead in which it could fester. Throw in quarter-end reshuffling and today could be messy. Keep one eye on Hormuz before you log off. Let's dig in.
|
|
|
|
What to Watch Today
|
|
10:00 ET
|
Michigan Sentiment, final June
·
The week's last data point. June's flash read was 48.9, still deeply depressed, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6 percent. Watch the expectations line, it weighs on the Fed more than the mood does.
|
|
|
All day
|
The US-Iran Factor
·
After a ship was struck on the UN-backed route through the Strait of Hormuz and the UN suspended its evacuation plan, watch whether transits resume or freeze, whether the promised inspections begin next week, and crude's reaction. A wider confrontation puts the oil premium back fast.
|
|
|
4:00 ET
|
Quarter-End Rebalancing
·
The last session of the month and quarter brings heavy index rebalancing and window-dressing into the close. Expect outsized, often mean-reverting prints in the final hour. Do not over-read the 4:00 close.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Memory's Boom Lifts Chipmakers, Squeezes Big Tech
M
icron's blowout was supposed to revive the AI rally. Instead it exposed a fault line running through it. Surging memory prices are a windfall for the companies that make the chips, Micron jumped 17 percent on Thursday and South Korea's SK Hynix rose 12 percent. But the same surge is a cost problem for the companies that buy them: Apple fell 6 percent and Microsoft 3 percent after both warned that pricier memory will raise the cost of MacBooks, iPads and Xboxes. The market pulled two ways at once, the Dow pushed to a record, the chip names soared, and the Nasdaq still fell for a fourth straight day. The lesson for the week ahead: the AI trade no longer moves as one block. Memory and the equipment makers win the shortage; the device makers eat the margin hit until they can pass it on. Watch whether the split widens Friday, whether Micron holds its gains near $1,180, and the July 10 debut of SK Hynix's US listing, a fresh memory pure-play that could erode Micron's scarcity premium.
Read the full story →
|
|
|
|
01
|
A Strike in Hormuz Reopens the Oil Risk
The narrow reopening of the Strait of Hormuz just hit a wall. On Thursday a projectile struck the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely off the coast of Oman, on the very route the UN had promoted to move trapped ships out of the Gulf. The UN's maritime agency promptly suspended that evacuation plan, and the strike, widely blamed on Iran, came hours after the Revolutionary Guard warned that only Tehran-approved routes were allowed. Brent, which had nearly unwound its war premium, jumped 2.2 percent to $75.50. Watch whether transits resume or freeze, war-risk insurance and rerouting, and whether this is a one-off or a fresh escalation.
Read more
|
|
02
|
Venezuela Faces Its Hardest Recovery in a Century
Recovery is the story now. The twin earthquakes that hit west of Caracas on Wednesday, the strongest in over a century, have left more than 200 confirmed dead and thousands injured, with USGS models warning the toll could climb far higher, with rescue crews still pulling people from collapsed buildings. Power and water are out across the hardest-hit areas, the main airport is shut, and a strained government is leaning on foreign aid, including a pledge from Washington. For markets, early indications are that oil came through largely intact, and the country's roughly one million barrels a day keep flowing. Watch the rising toll, the pace of aid, and any delayed damage to export terminals.
Read more
|
|
03
|
Inflation Ran Hot. The Hike Is Still Coming.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1 percent in May, the hottest in three years, with the core rate at 3.4 percent. Because the print matched expectations and oil had since tumbled, markets stayed calm and the odds of a September hike eased to about 63 percent. But under Chair Kevin Warsh a 2026 rate increase is still the base case, and parts of the Street are calling for two or three. The swing factor is the labor market. Watch next Thursday's jobs report, and the June inflation read due July 31, for whether September is truly live.
Read more
|
|
|
|
|
