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As of 4:00 p.m. ET, Wednesday, August 5. The Dow closed at a record for a fifth straight session while the S&P and Nasdaq fell. ISM services prices paid is the July reading and the inflation number that matters; a falling ten-year alongside it is the tension in this tape.
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G ood morning. Iran and Oman have agreed where the ships would go. They have not agreed that the strait reopens, and Tehran keeps saying those are different questions. Esmaeil Baghaei put it plainly: the understanding “has nothing to do with whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened or remains closed.” Washington is describing something else. Bessent said a deal might come within a day, Trump said the strait opens very soon, and the Dow closed at a record for a fifth session running. Nine ships crossed on Saturday. Seven of them used a route Iran drew itself. Below: Michigan by one point, and what that does to November. A tape that split three ways. The deadliest night in Kyiv this year. And Meta becomes the third lab in a month to admit its model broke into somebody else's systems. SpaceX unlocks 911 million shares into a float less than a third that size. Lauren
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8:30 A.M. ET
Jobless claims, consensus near 200,000, and productivity. Wednesday gave the sharpest split of the cycle: ADP private payrolls at 44,000 , the weakest in six months, against ISM services prices paid at 70.3. Soft labor, hot services inflation. Claims is the tiebreak before Friday. |
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THIS MORNING
SpaceX's lock-up releases up to 911.5 million shares into a float below 280 million. S3 Partners put short interest near 34 percent of float before earnings. Some 95 percent of borrowable stock is already lent, and the fee has gone from 0.51 in June to 2 or 3 now. Watch the borrow rate: a spike means the supply has not arrived. |
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BEFORE THE OPEN
ConocoPhillips, Datadog and Warner Bros Discovery report; Airbnb, Cloudflare and DraftKings follow tonight. Warner Bros Discovery is the one to read, with a triple-digit profit decline expected into a live sector M&A story. Toyota reports Friday, not today. |
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THE WEEK AHEAD
Consensus in bold. June payrolls came in at 57,000 against a 114,000 forecast, and ADP has now printed 44,000. Friday is the week.
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AGREED ON THE ROUTE, NOT THE STRAIT · DAY 160
Iran and Oman have settled the coordinates. Tehran says that still does not open the strait.
Sixty days, no fees, mines cleared in thirty. Iranian state media describes something else again, and nobody has signed anything.
ILLUSTRATION
T ehran said on Wednesday that it had agreed with Oman on the geographical coordinates of a new shipping route, and that a joint statement was in final drafting. Deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi told IRNA there was understanding on almost all issues, including entry and exit points. Baghaei added a condition: that certain third parties do not obstruct it. THE REPORTED TERMS Axios, citing two regional sources, describes 60 days, extendable. Inbound ships route north through Iranian waters, outbound south through Omani waters. No fees for the duration, and mines cleared from the median lane within 30 days. A US official told the AP there would be no Iranian approval for transits and no charges. A CBS source described a service fee split between the two. Those cannot both be right.
THE CONDITION NOBODY IS PRICING State television was blunter still, saying reopening depends on a change in US behavior and the correction of its violations. So the route is agreed and the strait stays shut until Washington moves. That is a condition rather than a timetable, it appears in none of the reported terms, and no price currently reflects it. AND THE TERMS DO NOT MATCH Iranian state TV describes a middle corridor controlled jointly by the two countries, which is not the northern and southern lanes Axios reported. Rubio has ruled out any arrangement giving Iran control, calling it a very dangerous precedent, while Reuters reports the deal would give Tehran more control than before the war. Oman has issued nothing of its own; the joint statement is still being drafted. WHAT THE WATER SAYS Kpler counted nine confirmed transits on Saturday. Seven used what it calls the Iranian Unilateral Scheme; none used the established traffic separation scheme. Windward logged fifteen in a rolling day, four of them running dark. The strait normally carries about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Watch: the blockade, not the coordinates. Everything else is agreed and nothing has moved. |
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1
· El-Sayed won Michigan by a point, and both parties now think they got the opponent they wanted
The Associated Press called it at 9:56 a.m. Wednesday with 99 percent counted, a margin near 15,000 votes out of 1.5 million. Haley Stevens conceded by phone: “I'm proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers.” AIPAC's United Democracy Project had spent $30.6 million against him, and the NRSC was already running ads amplifying his Sanders endorsement. Watch: the arithmetic. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, Democrats need four, and Michigan is one of only two Democratic seats in states Trump carried. |
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2
· The Dow set a fifth straight record while the S&P and Nasdaq fell
The Dow added 263 points to 54,349.06 . The S&P slipped 0.17 percent to 7,723.52 and the Nasdaq lost 0.83 percent, with the Russell 2000 up 1.85. The split is the signal: money rotating out of megacap AI and into everything else. Asia extended it overnight, with Kioxia down 11 percent, SK Hynix 6.7 and Tokyo Electron 5. Watch: whether breadth is a healthy rotation or the first crack in the AI trade. |
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3
· Russia's deadliest night in Kyiv this year, and Ukraine intercepted none of the ballistic missiles
At least 17 people were killed and 44 wounded in an overnight barrage on the capital region, hitting a Nova Poshta depot, a brewery and a mail-sorting center. Ukraine's air force said none of roughly 28 ballistic and anti-ship missiles were brought down. President Zelensky tied the toll directly to depleted interceptor stocks. Kyiv struck a Wildberries sorting center in Tula in reply. Watch: the interceptor link. Munitions spent over Iran are munitions Kyiv no longer has. |
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