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GOLD
4,527
▲+1.4%
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BITCOIN
62,419
▼−6.8%
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NASDAQ
26,500
▼−1.4%
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S&P 500
7,516
▼−0.5%
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As of 8:30 AM EDT, Thursday June 4, 2026
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G
ood morning. Trump is losing his Iran consensus, and the tape is starting to reflect it. The House voted 215 to 208 Wednesday to end the war under the War Powers Act, four Republicans crossing – Massie, Davidson, Fitzpatrick, Barrett. First congressional move to constrain him since the conflict began. Brent above $101 on a sixth straight US inventory drawdown and a drone strike on Kuwait that killed one. The S&P broke its record streak. Late Wednesday, Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew the ceasefire – the precondition Iran tied to any US deal. The Senate floor calendar is the entire game from here; a companion vote stops being symbolic and starts forcing a veto. NFP tomorrow is the binary. Trade well.
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What to Watch Today
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8:30 AM ET
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Initial Jobless Claims
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cons. 211K, prior 215K
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8:30 AM ET
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Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (final)
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cons. +0.8%, prior +0.8%
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10:00 AM ET
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Senate Votes; Iran War Powers Companion Possible
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Republican defections to watch following Wednesday's House break
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10:30 AM ET
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EIA Natural Gas Storage
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weekly
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FRI 8:30 AM
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May Employment Situation (NFP)
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cons. +62K, UR 4.3%, AHE +0.3% MoM / +3.8% YoY
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House Votes 215-208 to End Iran War Powers; Four Republicans Cross
T
he House voted 215 to 208 Wednesday to end US involvement in the Iran war under the War Powers Act, with four Republicans crossing – Massie, Davidson, Fitzpatrick, and Barrett. It is the first time either chamber has voted to constrain Trump on Iran since the conflict began in late February. The resolution is non-binding without Senate concurrence, but the Senate has been inching toward a parallel vote: a procedural motion on a Senate companion cleared last month after seven prior failures. If it passes, the dynamic stops being symbolic and starts forcing a veto. The administration had been counting on congressional drift receding if a ceasefire landed; that timeline just shortened.
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What It Means
The Senate floor calendar is the entire game from here. Republican leadership has been able to bury procedural motions through the week, but yesterday's House break gives wavering senators visible political cover. If the Senate clears its companion in the next ten days, the resolution lands on Trump's desk and the veto math becomes public – the first real referendum on the war Congress has held. The tape is already pricing it: Brent above $101, S&P off the records, VIX inching toward 17.
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Read the full story →
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01
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Israel and Lebanon Renew Ceasefire; Iran Drops a Precondition
Israel and Lebanon agreed Wednesday to implement a renewed ceasefire after the fourth US-led trilateral in Washington, contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and evacuating south of the Litani. Pilot zones under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control are the next step; political and security talks resume the week of June 22. The development matters beyond Lebanon: Tehran had set a Lebanon ceasefire as a precondition for any deal with the US, so this unblocks the Iran track even as Hormuz remains constrained. Hezbollah compliance is the open question.
Read more
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02
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St. Petersburg Forum Opens Under Drone Smoke; US Returns, Saudi Guest
SPIEF opened in St. Petersburg under a cloud of black smoke after Ukrainian drones struck a nearby oil terminal and naval hub overnight; Russia's MoD said 354 drones were intercepted across the country. Saudi Arabia is guest of honor for the 100th anniversary of diplomatic ties; China VP Han Zheng leads a senior delegation, and an official US presence is on the floor for the first time in years. Putin keynotes Friday. The actionable read isn't the speeches; it is the Saudi–Russia energy track and whether US officials engage on the margins.
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03
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EU Tables Technological Sovereignty Package; Hyperscaler Procurement on the Line
The Commission tabled its Technological Sovereignty Package on June 3 – Chips Act 2.0, a new Cloud and AI Development Act, an Open Source Strategy, and an energy-AI roadmap. Von der Leyen framed it around cutting Europe's 80%-plus reliance on non-EU providers. For AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud this is the procurement constraint the bloc has been building toward for two years, and the timing – same day as the new US forced-labor tariff window opened – is not coincidence. Member State pushback on hyperscaler carve-outs is the swing variable.
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