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GOLD
4,180
▼−0.7%
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BITCOIN
63,900
▼−0.2%
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NASDAQ
26,518
▲+1.9%
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S&P 500
7,501
▲+1.1%
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As of 6:30 AM ET, Monday June 22, 2026
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G
ood morning, and welcome back. The long weekend did not do much resting. In the Swiss Alps, US and Iranian negotiators pulled their peace deal back from the brink, finding enough common ground to keep going even after Trump spent Sunday threatening Tehran's team from Camp David. In London, Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader, staying on as caretaker prime minister while the party finds a successor. And much of Western Europe is baking under a heat dome: France is under a red alert, Spain is headed for 44C, and Britain may log its hottest June day on record, the kind of spell that strains power grids and crops alike. Markets, for their part, come back to a stronger dollar and Warsh's hawkish Fed still ringing in their ears, the week hinging on one number: Thursday's May inflation report, the gauge the Fed actually watches. Waller speaks today, FedEx and Micron report midweek, and oil moves on every Hormuz headline. Plenty to get to. Let's dig in.
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What to Watch Today
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TODAY
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Fed's Waller Speaks
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His first remarks since the hawkish hold. Is a rate hike now the base case, or was the dot plot a bluff?
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TUE
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FedEx & Carnival Earnings; Flash PMIs
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FedEx is the global-freight tell, its first report since the Freight spin-off; Carnival reads the consumer. Flash PMIs at 9:45.
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WED
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Micron Earnings, After the Close
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The AI memory bellwether. Watch the 81% gross-margin guide and any read on HBM4 demand for Nvidia.
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THU 8:30
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May PCE, Q1 GDP, Durable Goods
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The week's main event. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, is seen near 3.4% and hot; a firm print cements the October-hike trade.
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Wall Street Has a New Question: When Does the Fed Hike?
F
or two years, the only debate on Wall Street was when the Fed would start cutting. That question is gone. After Warsh used his first meeting as chair to scrap the 2026 cut, lift inflation forecasts, and raise the median 2026 dot to 3.8% from 3.4%, the market has flipped to one almost nobody was asking in spring: when does the Fed hike? Futures put the odds of a move by October near 60%, and the dollar sits at a one-year high near 100.8. The next clue lands Thursday, when May inflation is expected to run hot, core near 3.4% and the headline pushed toward 4% by energy. A firm print pulls hike bets forward and squeezes anything priced for easy money; a soft one hands the doves, and the president, an opening. Watch the core PCE reading and whether the dollar holds 100.
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01
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US and Iran Advance Their Peace Deal Despite a Hormuz Standoff
After Iran declared Hormuz closed and Trump threatened from Camp David that Tehran's negotiators would not make it home without a deal, the Burgenstock talks looked dead Sunday night. Instead they advanced: mediators reported encouraging progress, with a committee over the nuclear and sanctions tracks, a de-confliction cell for Lebanon, and a hotline to keep ships moving through Hormuz for 60 days. Lebanon is still the wildcard. Watch whether the cell holds and whether oil keeps easing.
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02
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SpaceX Shares Slide as the IPO Hype Cools
Investors pushed SpaceX shares lower again, the stock near $185, down about 4% and well off its $202 highs from a week ago. Its market value is back near $2.4 trillion after briefly nearing $3 trillion at the peak, and skeptics warn it has run ahead of fundamentals. The wobble is a caution flag for the mega-listings behind it, with Anthropic and OpenAI both filed, and SpaceX still digesting its $60 billion takeover of Cursor. Watch whether the selling deepens, and what it says about appetite for the next giant IPOs.
Read more
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03
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Starmer Resigns, Triggering a Labour Leadership Race
Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader on Monday outside Number 10, bowing to months of pressure as the party's polls cratered. He stays on as caretaker prime minister until Labour picks a successor in the coming weeks, with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham already maneuvering. A change atop the world's sixth-largest economy raises real questions for the pound, gilts, and the autumn budget. Watch sterling and gilt yields as the field takes shape.
Read more
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